BP expects global energy to rise between now and 2030 despite ongoing efficiency gains, driven by growth in non-OECD countries. In Energy Outlook 2030, the oil major predicts global energy demand growth of 1.6% annually, almost all of which will come from non-OECD countries: OECD nations are forecast to increase consumption by just 4% in the next 20 years.
The company still believes that global energy will be dominated by fossil fuels, which will account for 81% of consumption by 2030 – just 6% below current levels. Biofuels will be the fastest-growing sources of energy globally, the company says, with consumption rising over 8% per year.
Transportation is likely to be the slowest growing sector for global energy consumption, the report predicts, as significant improvements in fuel efficiency (including hybrid vehicles) will dampen the impct of growing vehicle use in emerging markets. The company believes that oil will account for 87% of energy use in the transport sector, down from 95% today, with biofuels filling that gap.
“This report is by turns challenging, fascinating and stimulating for anyone in the energy business. It helps us to be both realistic and optimistic. It shows there are things we can’t change - like the underlying drivers of energy demand - and things we can change – like the way we satisfy that demand,” said CEO Bob Dudley (pictured) as he presented the report. “The main message is that we need to have an open, competitive energy sector, which encourages innovation and thereby maximises efficiency in order to enjoy energy that is sufficient, secure and sustainable into the future.”
The report is available online here :
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